Premium for heightened uncertainty: Explaining pre-announcement market returns

Earnings Announcement Premium and Information Ambiguity

In today's investment world there is emphasis on the role of accounting information. Behavioral factors always play an important role in financial markets. All investors are not rational and their demand for riskiness of assets is influenced by their beliefs and feelings. Optimism, pessimism, self-confidence, ambiguity-aversion, etc. help changing the manner of decision-making process over time...

Risk Preferences and The Macro Announcement Premium

The paper develops a theory for equity premium around macroeconomic announcements. Stock returns realized around pre-scheduled macroeconomic announcements, such as the employment report and the FOMC statements, account for 55% of the market equity premium during the 1961-2014 period, and virtually 100% of it during the later period of 1997-2014, where more announcement data are available. We pr...

Diversified returns, aggregate wealth and varying market risk premium: testing the CAPM with data for Mexico

Estimating the market risk premium

This paper provides a method for estimating the market risk premium that accounts for shifts in investment opportunities by explicitly modeling the underlying process governing the level of market volatility. I find that approximately 50% of the measured risk premium is related to the risk of future changes in investment opportunities. Evidence of a structural shift in the underlying volatility...

Forward-Looking Market Risk Premium

A method for computing forward-looking market risk premium is developed in this paper. We first derive a theoretical expression that links forward-looking risk premium to investors’ risk aversion and forward-looking volatility, skewness and kurtosis of cumulative return. In addition, investors’ risk aversion is theoretically linked to volatility spread, defined as the gap between the risk-neutr...